The climate vulnerability index applied to the agricultural sector in the Republic of Moldova

Ala Druta; Tamara Rudi; Svetlana Smerea; Larisa Andronic

doi:10.52673/18570461.25.3-78.04

Authors

Ala Druta Institute of Genetics, Phisiology and Plat Protection, MSU
Tamara Rudi Institute of Genetics, Phisiology and Plat Protection, MSU
Svetlana Smerea Institute of Genetics, Phisiology and Plat Protection, MSU
Larisa Andronic Institute of Genetics, Phisiology and Plat Protection, MSU

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52673/18570461.25.3-78.04

Keywords:

CVI, vulnerability, climate risks, agriculture sector, adaptive capacity

Abstract

The article analyses the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Republic of Moldova to climate change by constructing and applying a composite Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), based on a triadic assessment: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Covering the period 2012–2021, the study employs 64 indicators distributed across thematic and spatial subcomponents, analysing disparities among the three agroecological zones (North, Center, and South). The results reveal increased vulnerability in the AEZ South, driven by frequent climatic variability and extreme events, while AEZ Center exhibits heightened agricultural sensitivity in crop production. Adaptive capacity has improved in the AEZ Center due to agro-technological development and crop diversification, and in the AEZ North mainly due to subsidies and insurance policies. The decreasing values of the index over the analyzed period reflect a strengthening of agricultural system’s resilience and position the CVI as a strategic tool for guiding adaptation policies, prioritizing investments, and monitoring progress in reducing climate risks and vulnerabilities.

References

1. Yohe, G. & Tol, R.S.J. Indicators for social and economic coping capacity: moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. In: Global Environmental Change, 2002, 12: 25-40.

2. Adger, W.N.; Agrawala, S.; Mirza, M.M.Q. et al. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. In: Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden & C.E. Hanson, eds. 2007, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 717-743.

3. Engle, N.L. Adaptive capacity and its assessment. In: Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21: 647-656.

4. Hinkel, J. Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity: Towards a clarification of the science-policy interface. In: Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21:191-208.

5. Lavell, A.; Oppenheimer, M.; Diop, C., et al. 2012. Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. In: A Special Report of WGs I and II, IPCC, 2012, 25-64. Cambridge, UK, and NewYork, USA, Cambridge University Press.

6. Fellmann T. The assessment of climate change-related vulnerability in the agricultural sector: reviewing conceptual frameworks. In: Building resilience for adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector. 2012, 37-61. FAO/OECD.

7. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC WG II. M.L. Parry, et al, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, UK, 976 p.

8. Smith, B.; Wandel, J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerablity. In: Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16: 228-292.

9. Adger, W.N.; Brooks, N.; Bentham, G. and Agnew M. New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, TR7, 2007.

10. Schröter, D.; Polsky, C.; Patt, A.G. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2005, 10: 573-595.

11. Sullivan, C. Calculating a water poverty index. In: World Development, 2002, vol. 30, no. 7, 1195-1210.

12. Hahn M.; Reiderer A. and Foster S. The livelihood vulnerability index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change – A case study in Mozambique. In: Global Env. Change. 2009, vol. 19(1): 74-88.

13. Druță, A.; Gavrilaș, T. Aplicarea Indicelui de Vulnerabilitate Climatică (IVC) în scopul determinării gradului de vulnerabilitate și capacitate de adaptare la schimbările climatice ale Republicii Moldova. În: Mediul Ambiant, nr. 6(72), 2013, 38-46.

14. Lista completă a indicatorilor utilizați în studiu și a surselor primare de date pentru fiecare indicator se regăsește pe linkurile: https://igfpp.md/sites/default/files/inline-files/Indicatorii%20IVC_2025.06.27.pdf

15. https://statistica.gov.md/ro

16. https://www.meteo.md/

17. https://aipa.gov.md/

18. Mudasser, M. et al., 2020. Investigating the climate-induced livelihood vulnerability index in coastal areas of Bangladesh. In: World. 2020, 1(2), 149-170, https://doi.org/10.3390/world1020012

19. Dimov, D. Toncho Penev and Ivaylo Marinov. Temperature-humidity index – an indicator for prediction of heat stress in dairy cows. In: Veterinarija ir Zootechnika. 2020, 78(100): 74-79.